Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Estrella Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's 45% home win and 45% draw probabilities show no clear edge for the outright winner, so the combo advice carries more risk than the headline suggests.
- UD San Fernando's defensive score of 75 against Estrella's 25, plus two clean sheets in three, supports the home side's dominance.
- Estrella's 4-2 away loss and 4.00 away goals-against average expose defensive fragility that the +2.5 goals component of the advice depends on.
- The head-to-head record favors San Fernando 91 to 9, including a 6-1 home win, reinforcing home superiority in this matchup.
- Estrella scores 83% of goals after the 76th minute, suggesting late goals could push the total over 2.5 even if the game stays tight early.
- San Fernando's 5-0 home win and 2.70 goals-per-game average support the over 2.5 expectation, though their recent 2-0 away loss adds variance.
- Predicted winner
- UD San Fernando
- Betting advice
- Combo Winner : UD San Fernando and +2.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- +2.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | UD San Fernando | Estrella |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Attack | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Defence | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Poisson | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 91.0% | 9.0% |
| Goals | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| Total | 73.6% | 26.4% |
Team form and goal analysis
UD San Fernando
Recent form: WWL.
Average goals scored: 2.70 per match.
Estrella
Recent form: WLD.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Estrella 0–0 UD San Fernando (14 Mar 2025)
- UD San Fernando 6–1 Estrella (03 Nov 2024)
- Estrella 1–3 UD San Fernando (24 Mar 2023)
- UD San Fernando 2–0 Estrella (25 Nov 2022)


