Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

UD San Fernando vs Estrella Prediction

UD San Fernando badgeUD San Fernando vs Estrella badgeEstrella

Match prediction

  • The model's 45% home win and 45% draw probabilities show no clear edge for the outright winner, so the combo advice carries more risk than the headline suggests.
  • UD San Fernando's defensive score of 75 against Estrella's 25, plus two clean sheets in three, supports the home side's dominance.
  • Estrella's 4-2 away loss and 4.00 away goals-against average expose defensive fragility that the +2.5 goals component of the advice depends on.
  • The head-to-head record favors San Fernando 91 to 9, including a 6-1 home win, reinforcing home superiority in this matchup.
  • Estrella scores 83% of goals after the 76th minute, suggesting late goals could push the total over 2.5 even if the game stays tight early.
  • San Fernando's 5-0 home win and 2.70 goals-per-game average support the over 2.5 expectation, though their recent 2-0 away loss adds variance.
Predicted winner
UD San Fernando
Betting advice
Combo Winner : UD San Fernando and +2.5 goals
Home win probability
45%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
10%
Goals market
+2.5

Prediction comparison

FactorUD San FernandoEstrella
Form60.0%40.0%
Attack57.0%43.0%
Defence75.0%25.0%
Poisson100.0%0.0%
H2h91.0%9.0%
Goals85.0%15.0%
Total73.6%26.4%

Team form and goal analysis

UD San Fernando

Recent form: WWL.

Average goals scored: 2.70 per match.

Estrella

Recent form: WLD.

Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Estrella 0–0 UD San Fernando (14 Mar 2025)
  2. UD San Fernando 6–1 Estrella (03 Nov 2024)
  3. Estrella 1–3 UD San Fernando (24 Mar 2023)
  4. UD San Fernando 2–0 Estrella (25 Nov 2022)
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