UD Ourense vs Cacereño Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output points toward a draw-or-Cacereño double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 50% draw and 50% away while assigning UD Ourense a 0% chance, so the advice is best read as a cautious lean rather than a decisive call. That lean is strongly reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Cacereño holds a 100.00 form score against Ourense's 0.00, and the attack, defence, Poisson and total measures all cluster near 86–90 for the away side versus 10–14 for the hosts. The team analysis explains the gap: Ourense have lost all four league matches (LLLL), scoring just once while conceding nine, whereas Cacereño are unbeaten in four (WDWW) with three wins, one draw, six goals scored and only one conceded. Cacereño's defensive record is especially notable, with three clean sheets from four and no failures to score, while Ourense have failed to score in three of four and kept none. The goals analysis adds nuance to the double-chance logic, since Cacereño's 1.50 goals per game and 0.30 conceded per game suggest control rather than a high-scoring blowout, and their goals are heavily concentrated in the 61–75 minute window at 50%. Ourense's attacking output is minimal at 0.30 goals per game, and their concession pattern is spread across the match, with goals against in the 0–15, 31–45, 46–60 and 76–90 bands, which points to sustained pressure rather than one fragile period. The last-five records broadly agree with the season data, as Ourense's run is four straight league defeats before an older 2–0 win over Conquense, while Cacereño's sequence includes three home wins and an away draw, with their only recent loss coming away to Recreativo Huelva. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical meeting data to either support or qualify the model's view, and the under-over prediction is also absent, leaving the total-goals angle unstated. Taken together, the evidence supports the draw-or-Cacereño advice mainly through Cacereño's unbeaten form and Ourense's winless, low-scoring start, though the small four-match sample and the 50/50 split between draw and away win mean the model's confidence should not be overstated.

Predicted winner

Cacereño

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Cacereño

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.