Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Spain
UCAM Murcia II vs San Javier Prediction
Match prediction
The existing model leans toward UCAM Murcia II as a combo winner with over 1.5 goals, yet its own probabilities are nearly level at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the selection rests on a narrow edge rather than clear dominance. That tension is visible in the comparison metrics, where San Javier's superior form score of 64.00 against 36.00 undercuts the home pick, while UCAM Murcia II's stronger attack rating of 54.00 versus 46.00 and an identical 50.00 defence rating for both sides offer only partial support. The Poisson split of 100.00 to 0.00 is the most extreme value in the data and aligns with the home winner, but it sits awkwardly beside the balanced 1X2 probabilities and the goalless head-to-head and goals comparison columns, which provide no separating signal. Both teams' performance profiles are small samples of three league matches: UCAM Murcia II have one win, one draw and one loss with a 4-0 home win over Balsicas Atlético and a 2-1 away defeat at Santomera, while San Javier are unbeaten with two wins and a draw, including a 3-2 home win over Santa Cruz and a 1-0 home win over SFC Minerva. San Javier's form therefore looks more reliable on results alone, though their two wins came at home and their only away outing was a 2-2 draw at Unión Molinense, which slightly tempers the away threat implied by their form score. The goals analysis adds a different slant: UCAM Murcia II average 2.30 goals scored but have kept a clean sheet only at home, conceding all four of their goals away, whereas San Javier average 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded with a more even home-and-away split. Both teams have scored in every listed match, and each has gone over 1.5 goals in two of three games, which is the clearest joint support for the over 1.5 component of the advice even if the winner side remains contested. The last-five records extend the picture beyond the league sample, with UCAM Murcia II adding two draws from May and San Javier listing only their three current-season matches, so the recency and volume of evidence are unequal. The head-to-head section is empty, meaning there is no direct meeting data to confirm or challenge the home advantage, and the comparison's h2h and goals columns are likewise zeroed out. Overall, the advice is best read as a modest lean supported by attack and Poisson metrics and by both teams' tendency to score, but it is qualified by San Javier's better form, their unbeaten start, and the absence of head-to-head evidence.
- Predicted winner
- UCAM Murcia II
- Betting advice
- Combo Winner : UCAM Murcia II and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | UCAM Murcia II | San Javier |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Attack | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 46.7% | 53.3% |
Team form and goal analysis
UCAM Murcia II
Recent form: LWD.
Average goals scored: 2.30 per match.
San Javier
Recent form: WDW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
No recorded head-to-head matches are available.


