U. San Martin vs Alianza Universidad Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% draw and 45% away split makes the double chance the logical expression of its uncertainty rather than a confident away win.
• Alianza Universidad's seven draws in seventeen matches, including three straight, reinforce the draw half of the advice.
• San Martin's defensive collapse, conceding seven away recently, explains why the model gives them only a 10% win probability.
• Alianza's superior head-to-head record and away goals output support their edge, though those meetings date mostly to 2023 and earlier.
• San Martin's stronger attack and form metrics conflict with their poor defence, which is why the model still leaves them a narrow path.
• Both teams' low-scoring profiles, with most matches under 2.5 goals, suggest the draw component carries real weight in this advice.

Predicted winner

Alianza Universidad

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Alianza Universidad

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Alianza Universidad 3–1 U. San Martin (15 Oct 2023)
2. U. San Martin 2–3 Alianza Universidad (10 Oct 2023)
3. Alianza Universidad 2–2 U. San Martin (18 Jul 2023)
4. U. San Martin 0–2 Alianza Universidad (23 Apr 2023)
5. Alianza Universidad 1–1 U. San Martin (23 Aug 2021)