Tver vs Torpedo Vladimir Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Tver or draw, with home, draw, and away probabilities of 35%, 35%, and 30% respectively, so the advice reflects a narrow edge rather than a clear favourite. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Tver leads on form (57 versus 43), defence (60 versus 40), and Poisson (62 versus 38), while attack is level at 50 for both sides. However, the same comparison set shows Torpedo Vladimir ahead on head-to-head (71 versus 29) and goals (73 versus 27), and the total metric is nearly even at 47.5 versus 52.5, which qualifies rather than confirms the home lean. Tver's season record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses across 22 matches is built on home strength, with 6 of those wins at home and only 2 away, alongside a home goals-for average of 1.70 against 1.20 away. Torpedo Vladimir's 8 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses in 21 matches are more balanced home and away, and their defensive numbers are tighter overall, conceding 1.20 per game versus Tver's 1.60, which helps explain why the model does not commit to a Tver win. The last-five records pull in opposite directions: Tver have a win, two draws, and a loss from four listed matches, while Torpedo Vladimir have lost three of five, including a 4-0 defeat at Murom and a 1-0 home loss to Iskra Smolensk, though they also won 3-2 away at Zvezda St. Petersburg. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the advice, as Torpedo Vladimir have won six of the last ten meetings, including the most recent 2-0 in June 2026 and a 1-0 in August 2025, with Tver's wins coming in 2025, 2022, and 2020. Tver's goal timing shows a concentration of 25% of their goals in the 31-45 minute window, while they concede 33.33% in the 16-30 window, suggesting vulnerability before half-time that a low-scoring Torpedo side may not fully exploit given their 1.00 goals-per-game average. Overall, the evidence supports a cautious double chance rather than a confident home win, because Tver's form, defensive, and Poisson advantages are offset by Torpedo Vladimir's head-to-head dominance and superior goals metrics, leaving the probabilities tightly grouped.

Predicted winner

Tver

Betting advice

Double chance : Tver or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Torpedo Vladimir 2–0 Tver (07 Jun 2026)
2. Torpedo Vladimir 1–0 Tver (31 Aug 2025)
3. Tver 2–1 Torpedo Vladimir (10 May 2025)
4. Torpedo Vladimir 4–1 Tver (20 Oct 2024)
5. Tver 0–0 Torpedo Vladimir (01 Jul 2024)