TuS BW Königsdorf vs Hennef 05 Prediction

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 13:30 UTC

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Hennef 05 with a “win or draw” combo double chance and +1.5 goals, expressed through identical 45% draw and away probabilities against only a 10% home win, so the advice is cautious rather than a strong away endorsement. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Hennef’s 100.00 form score and 72.00 defence rating dwarf Königsdorf’s 0.00 form and 28.00 defence, while attack is level at 50.00 and both Poisson values sit at 0.00, suggesting the model sees little separating the sides in pure scoring expectation. The head-to-head and goals splits also favour the visitors, with Hennef holding 71.00 to 29.00 on h2h and 62.00 to 38.00 on goals, and the total comparison of 63.80 to 36.30 pointing the same direction. Königsdorf’s team analysis is bleak: three defeats from three, a three-match losing streak, no clean sheets, and heavy losses of 0-7 at home and 7-1 away, leaving them with 2 goals scored and 18 conceded at an average of 6.00 against per game. Hennef’s record is more mixed than the form score implies, with one win, one draw and two defeats across four matches, but their defensive numbers are far healthier at 1.80 goals against per game, and they have kept one clean sheet while failing to score in three of four. The last-five records qualify both sides: Königsdorf lost 1-7, 0-7 and 1-4 before an older 2-0 win, whereas Hennef lost 0-3 and 0-3, beat Bornheim 2-1, drew 0-0 with Hürth and lost 1-3, so neither arrives in convincing attacking form. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to a simple Hennef read, since Königsdorf won 2-1 at home in December 2024 and drew 1-1 in September 2023, even though Hennef won the most recent meeting 2-1 in February 2026 and also claimed a 5-0 home win in June 2023. Overall, the evidence supports the draw-or-Hennef double chance mainly because Königsdorf’s defence has collapsed, but the low-scoring Hennef profile and the +1.5 goals requirement sit awkwardly together, and the small samples involved mean the probabilities should be treated as indicative rather than decisive.

Predicted winner: Hennef 05
Betting advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Hennef 05 and +1.5 goals
Home win probability: 10%
Draw probability: 45%
Away win probability: 45%
Goals market: +1.5

Prediction comparison

Factor	TuS BW Königsdorf	Hennef 05
Form	0.0%	100.0%
Attack	50.0%	50.0%
Defence	28.0%	72.0%
Poisson	0.0%	0.0%
H2h	29.0%	71.0%
Goals	38.0%	62.0%
Total	36.3%	63.8%

Team form and goal analysis