Turris vs Fidelis Andria Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Turris win or draw, with home and draw probabilities both at 45% against only 10% for Fidelis Andria, and the comparison metrics broadly reinforce that split by favouring Turris on form (89 versus 11), attack (60 versus 40), defence (67 versus 33) and Poisson (66 versus 34). That edge is qualified by the head-to-head split, which actually tilts 64 to 36 toward Fidelis Andria, and by the goals comparison, where the away side leads 75 to 25, so the advice rests on current-season indicators rather than historical or scoring-volume ones. Turris's four-match record of two wins and two draws, with no defeats, clean sheets in both home and away fixtures and a 4-3 home win over Martina Franca alongside a 2-1 away win at Brindisi, supports the view that they are hard to beat even when not dominant. Their goals profile is modest rather than explosive: 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded per game, with only one of four matches going over 2.5 goals and a notable concentration of concessions in the 61-75 minute window, which hints at late-game vulnerability. Fidelis Andria's last five read far worse, with four defeats and one draw, no clean sheets in four league games, and 2.00 goals conceded per match, including a 3-2 loss at Gladiator and a 1-3 home defeat to Gravina. Their scoring is also limited at 1.00 per game and entirely confined to the first half of matches, which suggests they may struggle to respond if they fall behind. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight, since Fidelis Andria won the most recent meeting 2-0 in April 2023 and also won 1-0 at home in October 2021, while Turris won 1-0 at home in March 2022 and drew 0-0 in November 2022. Those four meetings are a small and relatively old sample from Serie C, so they may not translate directly to this Serie D context, but they do caution against treating the double chance as comfortable. Overall, the form, defensive and Poisson evidence jointly justify the Turris-or-draw advice, while the away-leaning head-to-head and goals metrics mean the draw component of that advice carries meaningful weight rather than serving as a formality.

Predicted winner

Turris

Betting advice

Double chance : Turris or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Fidelis Andria 2–0 Turris (02 Apr 2023)
2. Turris 0–0 Fidelis Andria (30 Nov 2022)
3. Turris 1–0 Fidelis Andria (06 Mar 2022)
4. Fidelis Andria 1–0 Turris (24 Oct 2021)