Tupy FC vs Goianésia Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's 45% draw and 45% Goianésia split makes the double chance the logical expression of its near-equal probabilities.
- Goianésia's superior attack and Tupy's weaker defence support the away side's edge, though both teams' identical recent form tempers that advantage.
- The lone head-to-head meeting, a 1-0 Goianésia home win, is too small a sample to carry much weight on its own.
- Both teams' last five show low-scoring, draw-heavy results, reinforcing why the model treats a stalemate as nearly as likely as a Goianésia win.
- Tupy's modest goal output and frequent failure to score suggest their 10% win probability is appropriately low rather than an oversight.
- Goianésia's slightly better overall record and goal difference justify favouring them, but their own inconsistent form explains why the draw remains equally probable.
- Predicted winner
- Goianésia
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Goianésia
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Tupy FC | Goianésia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Attack | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Defence | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Poisson | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Total | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Tupy FC
Recent form: WLLDDDWLWDWDLLD.
Average goals scored: 0.90 per match.
Goianésia
Recent form: DWWDWLWWDDWDLDL.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Goianésia 1–0 Tupy FC (02 Aug 2026)