Tulevik vs Tartu Kalev Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Tartu Kalev a 45% win probability and Tulevik only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice combines a draw-or-Tartu-Kalev double chance with over 1.5 goals rather than backing a single winner. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form is dead level at 50.00 for both sides and the Poisson split is nearly even at 48.00 to 52.00, even though Tartu Kalev leads on head-to-head (60.00 vs 40.00), goals (57.00 vs 43.00) and the overall total (52.80 vs 47.20). The sharper split sits in attack and defence: Tulevik rates far higher going forward (67.00 vs 33.00) while Tartu Kalev rates far higher defensively (65.00 vs 35.00), so the model's edge for the visitors appears to rest more on defensive solidity than on attacking superiority. Season output supports that reading, since Tulevik have scored 74 goals at 2.60 per game but conceded 60 at 2.10, whereas Tartu Kalev have scored 71 at 2.40 and conceded only 52 at 1.80, with their away defensive record (2.30 conceded) still noticeably better than Tulevik's away figure of 2.50. Both teams' goal-timing profiles point toward an open game: Tulevik score 22.37% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, while Tartu Kalev concede 31.11% in the final 15 minutes, and the over 1.5 goals lines are comfortably met by both (20 of 29 for Tulevik, 18 of 29 for Tartu Kalev). The last-five records are mixed rather than decisive, with Tulevik on W-L-W-L-D including a 5-3 win at Levadia U19 and a 3-3 home draw, and Tartu Kalev on W-W-L-L-D including a 4-0 away win but also 0-1 and 0-3 home defeats. The head-to-head record is the most supportive evidence for the visitors, as Tartu Kalev won the most recent meeting 4-2 and have taken three of the last four 2026 encounters, although Tulevik's 4-3 and 3-1 wins in that same sequence show the fixture has swung both ways. Overall, the evidence supports a close, high-scoring contest in which Tartu Kalev's defensive and head-to-head advantages justify the draw-or-away coverage, but Tulevik's stronger attack and the even form and Poisson numbers mean the 10% home win probability should be treated as a genuine, if smaller, possibility rather than a dismissed outcome.

Predicted winner

Tartu Kalev

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Tartu Kalev and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tartu Kalev 4–2 Tulevik (08 Aug 2026)
2. Tartu Kalev 3–4 Tulevik (13 Jun 2026)
3. Tulevik 1–3 Tartu Kalev (03 Apr 2026)
4. Tulevik 2–1 Tartu Kalev (06 Oct 2024)
5. Tartu Kalev 1–0 Tulevik (31 Aug 2024)