Tukums II vs JFK Ventspils Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward JFK Ventspils avoiding defeat, with draw and away win each at 45% against only a 10% home probability, and the advice combines that double chance with over 1.5 goals. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Ventspils lead on form (57 versus 43), defence (58 versus 42), head-to-head (62 versus 38), goals (63 versus 38) and total (53.2 versus 47), while Tukums II counter with a much stronger attack score (70 versus 30) and a marginal Poisson edge (51 versus 49). The attacking picture is therefore the main tension: Tukums II average 1.30 goals per game but concede 3.00 overall, inflated by 4.20 conceded per away match, whereas Ventspils score only 1.10 per game yet concede a comparatively modest 2.00. Both teams' goal distributions support the over 1.5 component, since Tukums II have gone over 1.5 in 7 of 20 matches and Ventspils in only 5 of 20, but Tukums II's defensive record shows over 1.5 conceded in 14 of 20 and over 2.5 in 11 of 20. Recent form is discouraging for both: Tukums II have lost four of their last five, including 0-5 at Mārupe and 0-3 at home to Leevon / PPK, with their only win a 3-1 home success over Rēzekne FA. Ventspils' last five are similarly mixed, a 1-0 home win over Skanste and a 1-1 draw with Riga FC II offset by a 0-7 loss at Metta / LU and a 1-4 defeat at Rīgas FS II, so their 57 form score reflects relative rather than convincing strength. The head-to-head record reinforces the away-leaning read, with Ventspils winning three of seven meetings, Tukums II one, and three draws, including a 2-2 draw in April 2026 and a 4-1 Ventspils home win in August 2025. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance advice more than a confident away win, because Tukums II's superior attack and the pair's shared tendency to concede keep the draw plausible and make the over 1.5 goals element the more coherent part of the combination.

Predicted winner

JFK Ventspils

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or JFK Ventspils and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. JFK Ventspils 2–2 Tukums II (04 Apr 2026)
2. JFK Ventspils 4–1 Tukums II (22 Aug 2025)
3. Tukums II 1–3 JFK Ventspils (21 Apr 2025)
4. JFK Ventspils 0–1 Tukums II (02 Aug 2024)
5. Tukums II 1–1 JFK Ventspils (06 Apr 2024)