Tubize vs Union Saint-Gilloise II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Tubize a 45% home win and 45% draw against only 10% for Union Saint-Gilloise II, so the "Tubize or draw" double chance reflects a strongly two-sided but home-leaning outlook rather than a clear winner. That view is broadly reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Tubize leads on form (59 vs 41), attack (62 vs 38), head-to-head (93 vs 7), goals (80 vs 20) and total (63 vs 37), though the Poisson metric is the notable exception, favouring the visitors 58 to 42. The head-to-head record is the most emphatic evidence, with Tubize unbeaten in the last two meetings at this venue (1-1 and 2-1) and holding a 93-to-7 split, yet the same series also contains three away wins for Union Saint-Gilloise II, which tempers any assumption of home dominance. Tubize's form line of WWLDW includes three wins, one draw and one loss, with both defeats of note coming at home (1-4 to Rochefort) and their away form actually stronger (two wins from three), suggesting the home advantage implied by the prediction is not fully supported by their own results. Union Saint-Gilloise II's LLWDW shows two wins, one draw and two losses, but both wins came at home with clean sheets, while their away record is winless with a draw and a loss, which helps explain why the model still leans toward Tubize. The goals analysis adds nuance: Tubize average 1.60 goals scored but concede 2.00 at home, whereas the visitors score 1.00 and concede 1.00 on average, with their defensive average of 0.70 at home contrasting with 1.50 away. Both teams' scoring is concentrated in the later phases, with Tubize netting 28.57% of goals in each of the 46-60, 61-75 and 76-90 windows and Union Saint-Gilloise II conceding 25% in each of the 0-15, 46-60, 61-75 and 76-90 windows, hinting at late-game volatility. The last-five records show Tubize's 3-1 win at Olympic Charleroi and 1-0 wins over Standard Liège II and Sporting Charleroi II alongside a 2-2 draw at Albert Quévy-Mons, while the visitors' sequence includes 1-0 and 2-0 home wins, a 1-1 away draw and 2-1 and 0-2 defeats. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance advice as a cautious reading of a fixture where Tubize's head-to-head and attacking edge outweigh the Poisson and away-form signals, but the small five-match samples and the visitors' capacity for away results mean the 45% draw probability is doing real work in that recommendation.

Predicted winner

Tubize

Betting advice

Double chance : Tubize or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tubize 1–1 Union Saint-Gilloise II (06 Dec 2025)
2. Union Saint-Gilloise II 0–3 Tubize (18 Oct 2025)
3. Tubize 2–1 Union Saint-Gilloise II (14 Dec 2024)
4. Union Saint-Gilloise II 0–3 Tubize (12 Oct 2024)
5. Union Saint-Gilloise II 1–3 Tubize (03 Mar 2024)