TSB Flensburg vs Nordmark Satrup Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives TSB Flensburg a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against Nordmark Satrup, leaving only 10% for an away win, which underpins the advice of a TSB Flensburg-or-draw double chance combined with over 1.5 goals. That split is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where TSB Flensburg leads on attack (69 vs 31), Poisson (74 vs 26), head-to-head (64 vs 36), goals (70 vs 30) and overall totals (61.80 vs 38.20), even though both sides sit level on form at 50.00. The form parity is somewhat misleading, since TSB Flensburg's record of four wins, two draws and three losses is built almost entirely at home (four home wins, no away wins), while Nordmark Satrup's three wins and four losses include only one away victory. TSB Flensburg's goal profile is clearly stronger, averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game versus 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded for Nordmark Satrup, and their home scoring average of 2.80 against Nordmark's away concession rate of 3.00 suggests the over 1.5 goals leg is well supported. The goals distribution adds nuance: TSB Flensburg have gone over 1.5 goals in six of nine matches and over 2.5 in only three, while Nordmark Satrup have exceeded 1.5 goals just three times, so the advice targets a low but not trivial scoring threshold rather than an open game. Recent form is mixed for both: TSB Flensburg's last five read W-L-D-L-D with a 2-0 win over Lübeck II but also a 2-4 home loss to Eckernförder SV, and Nordmark Satrup's last five read D-L-D-L-W with a 3-0 defeat at VfR Neumünster and a 1-0 home win over Rapid Lubeck. The head-to-head record leans toward TSB Flensburg with two wins, one draw and one loss across four meetings, including a 4-0 home win in 2023 and a 2-0 away win in 2024, though the most recent encounter in April 2025 finished 1-1. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance selection more strongly than the away side, but the 45% draw probability and Nordmark Satrup's tendency toward low-scoring, tight results mean the outcome remains genuinely uncertain rather than a clear home victory.

Predicted winner

TSB Flensburg

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : TSB Flensburg or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Nordmark Satrup 1–1 TSB Flensburg (09 Apr 2025)
2. TSB Flensburg 0–2 Nordmark Satrup (10 Aug 2024)
3. TSB Flensburg 4–0 Nordmark Satrup (04 Nov 2023)
4. Nordmark Satrup 0–2 TSB Flensburg (26 Aug 2023)