Trostianets vs Rebel Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Rebel a double-chance edge of draw or away at 45% each, leaving Trostianets a modest 10% home win probability, so the advice is best read as a lean toward avoiding a home victory rather than a strong away endorsement. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Rebel leads on attack (60 vs 40), goals (60 vs 40) and especially head-to-head (71 vs 29), while Trostianets' one clear advantage is defence at 82 against Rebel's 18. The Poisson split of 59 to 41 in Trostianets' favour and the form score of 56 to 44 for the home side pull in the opposite direction, which helps explain why the model stops short of backing Rebel outright and instead hedges with the draw. Trostianets' six-game record of two wins, three draws and one loss, with three clean sheets and only three goals conceded at 0.50 per game, shows a low-event, defensively organised profile that could suppress Rebel's attacking output. Rebel's corresponding six games produced three wins, one draw and two losses, with 12 goals scored at 2.00 per game but 11 conceded at 1.80, including a 3-5 home defeat and a 0-4 loss to Ahrobiznes Volochysk, so their threat is real but their defensive volatility is pronounced. The last-five records reinforce that contrast: Trostianets have three draws and two wins with just four goals scored across those matches, while Rebel have two wins, one draw and two losses, including a 3-0 win at Penuel and a 2-0 defeat at SC Poltava 2. The head-to-head sample of three meetings is small but tilts toward Rebel, with a 2-1 away win in May 2026 and two draws, one of them goalless, suggesting Trostianets have been difficult to beat but rarely dominant in this matchup. Rebel's goal timing is notably front-loaded, with 44.44% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, whereas Trostianets score 50% of their goals after the 76th minute, hinting at different game rhythms that could shape how the draw probability holds up. Overall, the defensive strength and draw-heavy form of Trostianets qualify the away lean, while Rebel's superior attack and head-to-head record justify the model's decision to cover the draw rather than commit to a Rebel win.

Predicted winner

Rebel

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Rebel

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Trostianets 1–2 Rebel (06 May 2026)
2. Rebel 0–0 Trostianets (22 Mar 2026)
3. Trostianets 1–1 Rebel (04 Oct 2025)