Tropezón vs Revilla Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Tropezón via a double-chance “Tropezón or draw” advice, with probabilities of 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the recommendation is essentially a bet against a Revilla win rather than a strong call on Tropezón taking all three points. That caution is echoed by the comparison metrics, where Tropezón’s form score of 56.00 and head-to-head score of 62.00 favour the home side, but Revilla’s attack score of 53.00 edges Tropezón’s 47.00 and both defences sit level at 50.00, while the Poisson values of 0.00 for each team offer no separating signal. The goals data reinforces how finely balanced this looks: Tropezón have scored seven and conceded just two across three games, whereas Revilla have scored eight but also conceded two, giving both an identical goals-against average of 0.70 and leaving the attacking edge with the visitors. Tropezón’s team analysis shows a perfect WWW start with three wins from three, including a 3-0 home victory and a 1-2 away win, and they have kept one clean sheet while never failing to score, which supports the idea that they are hard to beat even if not dominant. Revilla’s WWD record is nearly as strong, with two wins and a draw, a 4-0 home win and a 0-2 away win, plus two clean sheets, so their unbeaten start slightly undercuts the model’s decision to give them only a 10% win probability. The last-five records add nuance: Tropezón’s sequence includes a 0-1 loss to Arnedo in June alongside four wins, while Revilla’s includes a 0-2 loss to Torina and a 1-1 draw with Barquereño in May, meaning both teams’ recent form is built on a small, partly stale sample of three current-season matches. The head-to-head record is the most substantial evidence and is genuinely mixed, with Tropezón winning 3-1 at home in March 2026 and 3-0 away in November 2025, but Revilla also winning 2-1 at home in September 2024 and 2-0 at home in March 2023, alongside four draws. That pattern of alternating home advantage and frequent stalemates helps explain why the model splits 45% between a Tropezón win and a draw, and why the double-chance advice looks more defensible than any single-outcome prediction. The main tension is that Revilla’s superior attack score, higher goal tally and unbeaten start argue against dismissing them, yet the head-to-head and form scores still tilt toward Tropezón, so the existing advice should be read as a cautious, evidence-qualified lean rather than a confident forecast.

Predicted winner

Tropezón

Betting advice

Double chance : Tropezón or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tropezón 3–1 Revilla (15 Mar 2026)
2. Revilla 0–3 Tropezón (01 Nov 2025)
3. Tropezón 0–0 Revilla (02 Feb 2025)
4. Revilla 2–1 Tropezón (22 Sep 2024)
5. Revilla 2–2 Tropezón (16 Mar 2024)