Triglav vs Jesenice Prediction
· Stanko Mlakar Stadium
Match prediction
- The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify double chance rather than a straight win, since Jesenice's 10% away share is the only outcome clearly discounted.
- Triglav's perfect home record without defeat and three home clean sheets support the advice, though Jesenice's superior recent form and attack ratings keep the draw live.
- Head-to-head and goals comparisons overwhelmingly favor Triglav, but those samples are small and include a Jesenice away win, so they strengthen rather than guarantee the pick.
- Jesenice's late-goal pattern, scoring most after the 60th minute, suggests Triglav's defensive edge may be tested if the game stays close.
- Both teams average similar total goals, so the model's refusal to offer an under-over call is consistent with the balanced attacking evidence.
- Triglav's away defeats and Jesenice's strong away wins show the fixture is venue-sensitive, which is why the draw carries equal probability to a home win.
- Predicted winner
- Triglav
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Triglav or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Triglav | Jesenice |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Attack | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Defence | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Poisson | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| H2h | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Goals | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 53.8% | 46.3% |
Team form and goal analysis
Triglav
Recent form: WLWWLWWD.
Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.
Jesenice
Recent form: LDWWLWWW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Jesenice 0–3 Triglav (30 Apr 2026)
- Triglav 6–0 Jesenice (17 Oct 2025)
- Triglav 4–0 Jesenice (11 Sep 2024)