Toulouse vs PAU Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% draw probability matches its home win probability, explaining why the safer double-chance advice is preferred over a straight Toulouse victory.
• Toulouse's superior defensive rating and Poisson edge support avoiding defeat, though the level probabilities show the model sees little separation between the sides.
• PAU's stronger recent form and attack rating conflict with Toulouse's defensive and head-to-head advantages, which is why the prediction stops short of backing a home win.
• The head-to-head record leans Toulouse's way but is dominated by draws and low-stakes friendlies, weakening its value as decisive evidence for this fixture.
• Toulouse's small three-match sample and lack of clean sheets suggest the defensive edge may be less reliable than the model's Poisson estimate implies.
• PAU's away scoring and defensive vulnerabilities balance against their form advantage, keeping the draw a live outcome within the double-chance advice.

Predicted winner

Toulouse

Betting advice

Double chance : Toulouse or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Toulouse 0–0 PAU (12 Jul 2025)
2. Toulouse 2–2 PAU (20 Jul 2024)
3. Toulouse —–— PAU (12 Jul 2022)
4. Toulouse 1–1 PAU (15 Jan 2022)
5. Toulouse 3–2 PAU (03 Sep 2021)