TOŠK Tešanj vs Stupčanica Olovo Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Stupčanica Olovo as the winner, but its own probabilities of 10% home, 45% draw and 45% away show that this is a marginal call rather than a clear edge. The comparison metrics reinforce that split: Stupčanica dominate form (80 versus 20), attack (76 versus 24), defence (69 versus 31) and Poisson (89 versus 11), yet the head-to-head metric is perfectly level at 50-50, which qualifies any assumption of outright superiority. That tension is visible in the teams' seasons, as TOŠK Tešanj have two wins and four defeats from six with no draws, while Stupčanica have five wins and one loss, including a four-match winning streak. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, with Stupčanica averaging 3.00 goals scored and only 0.70 conceded, against TOŠK's 0.80 scored and 1.50 conceded, so the away side's advantage looks structural rather than a single-match spike. Even so, TOŠK's last five (one win, four defeats, scoring just four goals) and Stupčanica's last five (four wins, one defeat, including a 4-1 home win and two 3-0 away wins) are small samples that could overstate the gap. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight, since the last two meetings produced a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 away win for TOŠK, and the wider series includes heavy home wins in both directions, underlining how venue and match state have mattered. Stupčanica's 100% penalty conversion from three attempts and three clean sheets add a marginal reliability that TOŠK, with no penalties taken and two clean sheets, do not match. Overall, the evidence supports the away-side advice on form, attack, defence and goals, but the level head-to-head and the 45% draw probability mean the recommendation should be treated as a lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Stupčanica Olovo

Betting advice

Winner : Stupčanica Olovo

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. TOŠK Tešanj 1–1 Stupčanica Olovo (08 Apr 2026)
2. Stupčanica Olovo 1–2 TOŠK Tešanj (07 Sep 2025)
3. TOŠK Tešanj 4–0 Stupčanica Olovo (19 Apr 2025)
4. Stupčanica Olovo 3–0 TOŠK Tešanj (28 Sep 2024)
5. Stupčanica Olovo 4–0 TOŠK Tešanj (30 Mar 2024)