Tongeren vs Hades Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Hades a double-chance edge of draw or away, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% Hades against just 10% for a Tongeren win, so the advice is really a rejection of the home side rather than a strong vote for an away victory. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Hades leads on form (75 versus 25), attack (71 versus 29), head-to-head (71 versus 29), goals (58 versus 42) and the aggregate total (61.3 versus 38.7), while defence is the one category that sits level at 50-50. The Poisson metric is the notable counterweight, favouring Tongeren 57 to 43, which suggests the model's underlying scoring model sees a closer contest than the form and head-to-head columns imply. Tongeren's own record explains the pessimism: four league games without a win (three draws and one loss), only four goals scored at an average of 1.00 per game, and two matches in which they failed to score. Their last five results read D-D-D-L plus a 10-0 friendly defeat to Sporting Hasselt, a scoreline that is an outlier but still underlines how limited their attacking output has been. Hades, by contrast, have won three of four league matches, scoring ten goals at 2.50 per game, with home wins of 4-1 and 3-0 and an away 3-2 success at Wellen, though their 3-0 loss at Tempo Overijse shows they are not immune to being shut out. The goals analysis adds nuance: Hades' 2.50 goals per game and 1.50 conceded make them the more productive side, but their away defensive record of 2.50 conceded per game is markedly worse than their 0.50 at home, which is a real qualification on the double-chance case. The head-to-head record leans Hades' way with four wins to Tongeren's three and two draws across nine meetings, including a 1-2 Hades win at Tongeren and a 0-0 draw in the most recent fixture in February 2026. That recent goalless draw is a reminder that Tongeren have held Hades before, and with the Poisson model also favouring the home side, the 10% home-win probability looks like the most contestable part of the prediction. Overall, the evidence points to a low-scoring, closely matched fixture in which Hades' form and goal output justify the draw-or-away advice, but the level defence rating, the Poisson split and the recent 0-0 head-to-head result mean this should be treated as a lean rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

Hades

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Hades

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tongeren 0–0 Hades (07 Feb 2026)
2. Hades 1–2 Tongeren (29 Nov 2025)
3. Tongeren 0–1 Hades (29 Mar 2025)
4. Hades 2–1 Tongeren (28 Sep 2024)
5. Tongeren 2–3 Hades (09 Mar 2024)