Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5

Tona vs Badalona Prediction

Tona badgeTona vs Badalona badgeBadalona

Match prediction

  • Badalona's superior recent form and attacking output support the model's lean, though the modest 45% win probability signals limited conviction.
  • Tona's weak home record, with two losses and no clean sheets, reinforces the away-side advantage despite their shared head-to-head history.
  • Both prior meetings ended goalless, suggesting the head-to-head sample tempers confidence in a decisive Badalona result.
  • Badalona's defensive solidity, conceding just three goals across four matches, underpins the prediction more than their inconsistent win-loss sequence.
  • The equal 45% draw and away probabilities indicate the model sees this as near-even, so the Badalona advice carries real risk.
  • Tona's low scoring rate and failure to score at home in one match further justify favoring the visitors.
Predicted winner
Badalona
Betting advice
Winner : Badalona
Home win probability
10%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
45%
Goals market
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Prediction comparison

FactorTonaBadalona
Form33.0%67.0%
Attack30.0%70.0%
Defence33.0%67.0%
Poisson10.0%90.0%
H2h50.0%50.0%
Goals0.0%0.0%
Total31.2%68.8%

Team form and goal analysis

Tona

Recent form: LWLL.

Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.

Badalona

Recent form: LLWW.

Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Badalona 0–0 Tona (04 Apr 2026)
  2. Tona 0–0 Badalona (23 Nov 2025)
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