Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 5
Tona vs Badalona Prediction
Match prediction
- Badalona's superior recent form and attacking output support the model's lean, though the modest 45% win probability signals limited conviction.
- Tona's weak home record, with two losses and no clean sheets, reinforces the away-side advantage despite their shared head-to-head history.
- Both prior meetings ended goalless, suggesting the head-to-head sample tempers confidence in a decisive Badalona result.
- Badalona's defensive solidity, conceding just three goals across four matches, underpins the prediction more than their inconsistent win-loss sequence.
- The equal 45% draw and away probabilities indicate the model sees this as near-even, so the Badalona advice carries real risk.
- Tona's low scoring rate and failure to score at home in one match further justify favoring the visitors.
- Predicted winner
- Badalona
- Betting advice
- Winner : Badalona
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Tona | Badalona |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Attack | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Defence | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Poisson | 10.0% | 90.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 31.2% | 68.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Tona
Recent form: LWLL.
Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.
Badalona
Recent form: LLWW.
Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Badalona 0–0 Tona (04 Apr 2026)
- Tona 0–0 Badalona (23 Nov 2025)


