Tolmin vs Rudar Trbovlje Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw-or-Rudar Trbovlje double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% for both the draw and an away win and only 10% assigned to a Tolmin victory. That caution around the home side is reinforced by the head-to-head record, where Rudar Trbovlje won both listed meetings, including a 1-0 away result at Tolmin and a 4-1 home win, producing a 100% away H2H score against 0% for Tolmin. The comparison metrics broadly echo this, with Rudar ahead on form (53 vs 47), Poisson (52 vs 48), goals (83 vs 17) and total (55.8 vs 44.2), while Tolmin's only clear edges come in attack (53 vs 47) and defence (56 vs 44). Those defensive and attacking edges for Tolmin are notable because they conflict with the overall away-leaning output, suggesting the model's preference is not driven by a uniform statistical sweep. Recent form offers a further qualification: Tolmin's last five read L-W-D-W-D, including a 4-2 win at Žiri and a 3-3 draw at Šencur, while Rudar's read L-L-W-W-W, a three-win run followed by two defeats in which they conceded three goals in each. Rudar's season profile of three wins, one draw and two losses from six, with a three-match winning streak, looks stronger than Tolmin's two wins, three draws and one loss, yet Rudar have failed to score twice and kept only one clean sheet. Tolmin's goals analysis shows a pronounced late pattern, with 50% of their goals and 62.5% of goals against arriving in the 76-90 minute window, which could make the closing stages influential. Rudar's goals are more evenly spread and their goals against are also concentrated late (37.5% in the 76-90 window), so both sides carry late-game volatility. The under-over markets are similarly tight, with both teams seeing over 2.5 goals in only two of six matches, which tempers any expectation of a high-scoring outcome and supports the draw component of the advice. Overall, the evidence supports the existing draw-or-away lean through H2H dominance and superior form and goal metrics, but Tolmin's defensive and attacking scores, plus Rudar's recent back-to-back defeats, mean the prediction should be treated as uncertain rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Rudar Trbovlje

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Rudar Trbovlje

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tolmin 0–1 Rudar Trbovlje (28 Mar 2026)
2. Rudar Trbovlje 4–1 Tolmin (13 Sep 2025)