Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home win and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, since Montevarchi's 10% away win chance is the clear outlier.
• Ternana's perfect head-to-head and goals records are built on a single 2022 friendly, so they overstate the certainty behind the home side's edge.
• Montevarchi's superior form and attack ratings conflict with their weak away record, where both defeats and a 3-0 loss show travel vulnerability.
• Ternana's home defence has conceded just once across two matches, supporting the draw-inclusive advice against Montevarchi's away scoring struggles.
• Montevarchi's away goals-against average of 2.00 and failure to keep an away clean sheet suggest Ternana can avoid defeat at home.
• The Poisson split of 87% to 13% is far more decisive than the even win-draw probabilities, so the advice wisely hedges rather than backing a home win.

Predicted winner

Ternana

Betting advice

Double chance : Ternana or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Montevarchi Calcio 0–4 Ternana (23 Jul 2022)