Tenerife vs Cadiz Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Tenerife a 45% home win and 45% draw against only 10% for Cadiz, so the "Tenerife or draw" double chance reflects a strong but not absolute lean toward the hosts avoiding defeat. That lean is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Tenerife leads on form (78 versus 22), defence (56 versus 44), Poisson (76 versus 24), head-to-head (62 versus 38), goals (56 versus 44) and overall total (61.30 versus 38.70), though Cadiz's superior attack score (60 versus 40) is the one clear counterweight. The team analysis supports the same split: Tenerife's WWLDWL record includes three wins and two clean sheets, while Cadiz's DDDLLL shows no wins at all, three draws and three defeats across six matches. Tenerife's goals profile is notably home-tilted, with a 0.30 goals-against average at home against 2.30 away, whereas Cadiz concede 2.50 per away game and have failed to score twice at home. Cadiz's away scoring average of 2.00 is a genuine threat that complicates the clean-sheet assumption, even though their overall goals-for average of 1.00 is lower than Tenerife's 1.20. The last-five records sharpen the contrast: Tenerife have two wins, one draw and two losses, including a 5-0 defeat at Castellón, while Cadiz have two draws and three losses, conceding in every one of those five games. The head-to-head record is more balanced than the model's 62-38 split suggests, with three draws in the last five meetings and Tenerife's most recent home league win over Cadiz a 2-1 result in March 2025. Because both the win and draw probabilities sit at 45%, the advice is best read as a cautious double chance rather than a confident home victory, and the small six-match samples mean the form and goals gaps should be treated as indicative rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Tenerife

Betting advice

Double chance : Tenerife or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tenerife 2–2 Cadiz (01 Aug 2026)
2. Tenerife 2–1 Cadiz (23 Mar 2025)
3. Cadiz 2–2 Tenerife (31 Aug 2024)
4. Cadiz 0–2 Tenerife (27 Jun 2020)
5. Tenerife 1–1 Cadiz (17 Nov 2019)