Tenerife II vs Estepona Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Tenerife II win or draw, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for Estepona, and the double-chance advice follows directly from that combined 90% share. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Tenerife II lead on form (60 versus 40), attack (67 versus 33) and overall total (59 versus 41), although the identical 50–50 defence rating suggests neither side holds a clear defensive edge. The Poisson split of 0–100 in Estepona's favour is a notable contradiction that cuts against the headline probabilities, while the head-to-head, goals and h2h comparison fields are all recorded at zero and the head-to-head section is empty, so no historical meeting can be used to arbitrate between these signals. Tenerife II's three-match form line of LWW, with two wins and one loss, is supported by six goals scored at 2.00 per game and only four conceded at 1.30, and their scoring is heavily concentrated in the 61–75 minute window, which accounts for half of their goals. Estepona's DLW record over the same three fixtures shows one win, one draw and one loss, but their underlying numbers are more volatile: they have scored just three goals at 1.00 per game while conceding four, and their defensive record splits sharply between two home clean sheets and a 1–4 home defeat. The last-five records add useful context, with Tenerife II winning two of their three most recent competitive matches before older defeats to Tenerife and SS Reyes, whereas Estepona's sequence includes a 2–0 away win at Puente Genil, a 0–0 home draw with Xerez and a heavy 1–4 home loss to Linares Deportivo. Estepona's away form is arguably their strongest evidence, since their only away goals against total is zero and their biggest away win was 0–2, which qualifies the low 10% away-win probability even if it does not overturn the model's preference. Both teams have converted penalties at 100%, though Tenerife II have taken two to Estepona's one, a minor detail that reinforces rather than changes the overall picture. On balance, the form, attack and total metrics align with the double-chance advice, but the Poisson disagreement, the empty head-to-head record and Estepona's away resilience mean the prediction should be treated as a modest lean rather than a firm conclusion.

Predicted winner

Tenerife II

Betting advice

Double chance : Tenerife II or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.