Tarpa vs Nyiregyhaza II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Tarpa a narrow edge for the double chance at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice of “Tarpa or draw” rests on a slim combined 70% versus a still-live 30% for Nyiregyhaza II. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where the two sides are level on form at 0.00 and split the head-to-head at 50/50, while Nyiregyhaza II actually leads the attack (71 vs 29) and Poisson (58 vs 42) columns. Tarpa’s counterweight comes from defence (57 vs 43) and goals (63 vs 38), plus a total_home of 48.20 against 52.00, so the model is trading Nyiregyhaza II’s attacking and Poisson signals against Tarpa’s defensive and goals-based ones rather than finding a clear favourite. Both teams’ performance analysis shows identical WLLLLLLL form over eight games with one win, no draws and seven defeats each, which makes the draw component of the advice look more like a hedge than a strong pattern. Tarpa’s goals analysis is the weaker attacking profile at 0.60 goals scored per game and 2.50 conceded, yet Nyiregyhaza II’s is worse defensively at 2.90 conceded per game, including 3.80 at home, so neither defence supports a clean-sheet argument. The last-five records deepen the contradiction: Tarpa have four defeats and one draw with only three goals scored, while Nyiregyhaza II have lost all five, conceding 17 goals, so both samples are small and uniformly poor. The head-to-head record is the most balanced evidence available, with Tarpa winning 5-2 at home in September 2025 and Nyiregyhaza II winning 1-0 at home in April 2026, which is why the h2h split is 50/50 and offers no tie-breaker. Overall, the double chance on Tarpa is best read as a low-conviction call: the probabilities are nearly flat, the form and head-to-head are level, and the only separating signals point in opposite directions.

Predicted winner

Tarpa

Betting advice

Double chance : Tarpa or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Nyiregyhaza II 1–0 Tarpa (05 Apr 2026)
2. Tarpa 5–2 Nyiregyhaza II (21 Sep 2025)