Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W Prediction
· Riverfront Stadium
Match prediction
- The model's 45% draw and 45% Lexington win probabilities justify the double-chance advice, since Tampa Bay's 10% home win chance is the clear outlier.
- Lexington's 70 defence rating against Tampa Bay's 30, plus three clean sheets, supports the away side avoiding defeat.
- Tampa Bay's attack and Lexington's attack both rate 50, so the defensive gap is the decisive comparison behind the advice.
- Lexington's perfect Poisson score of 100 versus Tampa Bay's 0 reinforces the model's confidence in the away side's edge.
- Head-to-head is split 50-50, but Lexington won the two most recent meetings, qualifying rather than contradicting the draw-or-away advice.
- Tampa Bay's five matches produced no clean sheets, suggesting they are unlikely to shut Lexington out and lose outright.
- Predicted winner
- Lexington W
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Lexington W
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Tampa Bay Sun W | Lexington W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Total | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
Tampa Bay Sun W
Recent form: DLWWD.
Average goals scored: 1.60 per match.
Lexington W
Recent form: WLLWW.
Average goals scored: 1.60 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Lexington W 1–0 Tampa Bay Sun W (16 May 2026)
- Lexington W 4–0 Tampa Bay Sun W (18 Apr 2026)
- Tampa Bay Sun W 1–1 Lexington W (23 Nov 2025)
- Lexington W 0–3 Tampa Bay Sun W (11 May 2025)
- Tampa Bay Sun W 4–1 Lexington W (13 Apr 2025)