World · CONCACAF Nations League

Suriname vs Guatemala Prediction

Suriname badgeSuriname vs Guatemala badgeGuatemala

Match prediction

  • Guatemala's 45% win probability and 80% head-to-head edge justify favoring them, though the equal 45% draw share explains the double-chance advice.
  • Suriname's perfect two-match form conflicts with their low 10% win probability, suggesting the model weights opponent quality and recent heavy defeats more heavily.
  • Guatemala's superior attack and goals metrics align with the +1.5 goals component, supported by both teams scoring in every recent outing.
  • Suriname's perfect record came against Martinique and Honduras, a small sample that weakens the form signal relative to Guatemala's tougher recent schedule.
  • Guatemala's away losses to Jamaica, Ecuador and Czechia show vulnerability on the road, which tempers confidence in an outright win and supports the draw cover.
  • Identical defensive scores and both teams' tendency to concede suggest goals are likely, reinforcing the over 1.5 selection over a clean-sheet outcome.
Predicted winner
Guatemala
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : draw or Guatemala and +1.5 goals
Home win probability
10%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
45%
Goals market
+1.5

Prediction comparison

FactorSurinameGuatemala
Form67.0%33.0%
Attack38.0%62.0%
Defence50.0%50.0%
Poisson70.0%30.0%
H2h20.0%80.0%
Goals33.0%67.0%
Total46.3%53.7%

Team form and goal analysis

Suriname

Recent form: WW.

Average goals scored: 2.50 per match.

Guatemala

Recent form: LW.

Average goals scored: 4.00 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Guatemala 3–1 Suriname (19 Nov 2025)
  2. Suriname 1–1 Guatemala (10 Oct 2025)
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