Sunnersta vs Lidingö Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Sunnersta with a double-chance call of win or draw, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for Lidingö, so the advice effectively treats the away side as a marginal threat rather than a genuine co-favourite. That caution is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Sunnersta lead on form (54 vs 46), attack (53 vs 47), defence (56 vs 44) and especially the Poisson measure (79 vs 21), while the goals comparison (83 vs 17) and total (65 vs 35) reinforce the same directional picture. The head-to-head metric is the most extreme input, reading 100 to 0 in Sunnersta's favour, but it rests on a single recorded meeting — a 5-1 Sunnersta away win at Lidingö in April 2026 — so it should be treated as a strong signal from a very small sample rather than a settled pattern. Season-long team analysis supports the home side more robustly: Sunnersta have 14 wins, 5 draws and only 3 defeats from 22 matches, including an unbeaten away record of six wins and five draws, whereas Lidingö have 5 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses with just one home victory all season. Sunnersta's defensive record is notably tighter, conceding 19 goals at 0.90 per game with eight clean sheets, compared with Lidingö's 42 conceded at 1.90 per game and only two clean sheets, which helps explain why the draw probability remains high even though the win probability is not overwhelming. The goals analysis adds nuance: Sunnersta score 2.30 per game and Lidingö 1.20, but Sunnersta's goals cluster in the 31-45 and 61-75 windows while Lidingö concede fairly evenly across the match, suggesting the home side's scoring may be concentrated rather than relentless. Recent form complicates the picture slightly, as Sunnersta's last five read W-W-L-D-L with a 2-4 home loss to Angby and a 0-1 home defeat to Enskede, while Lidingö's last five read W-W-L-L-L, including a 3-0 away win at Korsnäs but also a 0-4 loss at Gute and a 1-3 home defeat to Enskede. Those last-five sequences show both teams capable of winning and losing, which is why the model's 45% draw allocation looks like a reasonable hedge rather than a contradiction of the 45% home-win figure. Overall, the evidence points to Sunnersta as the stronger side on nearly every available measure, but the single-match head-to-head and the recent wobbles on both sides mean the double-chance advice is better read as a cautious reflection of that superiority than as a confident prediction of a home victory.

Predicted winner

Sunnersta

Betting advice

Double chance : Sunnersta or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Lidingö 1–5 Sunnersta (25 Apr 2026)