Subiza vs Cirbonero Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Subiza with a 45% home win and 45% draw against only 10% for Cirbonero, framing the advice as a double chance on Subiza or draw combined with over 1.5 goals. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Subiza dominate form (67 vs 33), attack (89 vs 11), goals (67 vs 33) and total (64.7 vs 35.3), while the head-to-head (62 vs 38) and Poisson (58 vs 42) gaps are narrower, and defence is nearly level at 45 vs 55. The team analysis supports the attacking edge but also explains the draw risk: Subiza have one win, one draw and one loss from three games with eight goals scored and six conceded, whereas Cirbonero are winless with two draws and one defeat, scoring just once and conceding five. Subiza's goal profile is heavily front-loaded at home, averaging 5.00 goals there against 1.50 away, and their goals arrive fairly evenly across the match, which fits the over 1.5 component but also reflects a leaky defence that has conceded in every game. Cirbonero's numbers pull in the opposite direction, with a 0.30 goals-per-game average, two failures to score and only one goal all season, so the over 1.5 leg depends more on Subiza's scoring than on any sustained away threat. The last-five records reinforce that imbalance: Subiza's sequence includes a 5-2 home win over Valle Egüés plus a 1-1 draw at Avance Ezcabarte, but also a 3-2 loss at Gazte Berriak and heavier defeats to Huesca II and Izarra, while Cirbonero's run is LDD with a 0-0 home draw against Beti Onak, a 1-1 draw at Txantrea and a 0-4 home loss to Izarra. The head-to-head record is the most awkward evidence for the advice, since Cirbonero won both 2025 meetings (1-0 at Subiza and 2-1 at home), although Subiza won 2-0 at home in 2024 and the older fixtures include two goalless draws and a 3-0 Cirbonero win. Overall, the broad statistical trend favours Subiza and makes the double chance look reasonable, but the small three-game samples, Cirbonero's recent head-to-head edge and their low-scoring profile mean the draw and the goals line remain genuine uncertainties rather than comfortable outcomes.

Predicted winner

Subiza

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Subiza or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Subiza 0–1 Cirbonero (04 Mar 2026)
2. Cirbonero 1–2 Subiza (19 Oct 2025)
3. Subiza 2–0 Cirbonero (10 Feb 2024)
4. Cirbonero 0–0 Subiza (24 Sep 2023)
5. Cirbonero 0–0 Subiza (02 Apr 2022)