Sturm Graz W vs Austria Wien W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Austria Wien W a 45% win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving Sturm Graz W at just 10%, and its double-chance advice of draw or Austria Wien W follows directly from that near-even split between the two most likely outcomes. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Austria Wien W leads on attack (59 vs 41), defence (67 vs 33), Poisson (67 vs 33), goals (73 vs 27) and total (66 vs 34), while the only category that is level is form at 50.00 each. The head-to-head record is the strongest single signal behind the away lean, with Austria Wien W taking 80% of that comparison and winning four of the last ten meetings, including both 2026 fixtures, although the most recent one was a narrow 2-1 away win and the series also contains three draws and a 4-1 Sturm Graz W home victory. Sturm Graz W's team analysis shows a superficially excellent WWWDWWW sequence with six wins and no defeats in seven league games, yet their last-five record exposes the caveat: a 6-1 loss away to VfL Wolfsburg W sits alongside four wins, so the unbeaten league form is not the same as form against stronger opposition. Austria Wien W's LWWDWW record includes a 1-0 loss away to Chelsea W and a 1-1 draw at First Vienna W, but also convincing wins such as 5-0 at Südburgenland W and 4-0 at home to Brann W, suggesting a team that scores heavily when not facing elite opposition. The goals analysis supports a low-scoring rather than open contest, since Sturm Graz W concede only 0.60 per game and Austria Wien W just 0.30, with the latter keeping four clean sheets and never conceding more than one goal in a match. Sturm Graz W's attacking output of 2.90 goals per game is healthy, but their goals-against profile is concentrated after half-time, with three of four conceded in the 46-60 window, which could matter against an Austria Wien W side that scores 23.53% of its goals in that same period. Overall, the evidence points to a tight, low-margin game in which Austria Wien W's superior defensive and head-to-head numbers justify the draw-or-away advice, but the 45% draw probability and Sturm Graz W's unbeaten league run mean the prediction should be treated as a lean rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Austria Wien W

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Austria Wien W

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Sturm Graz W 1–2 Austria Wien W (17 May 2026)
2. Austria Wien W 3–1 Sturm Graz W (09 May 2026)
3. Austria Wien W 2–0 Sturm Graz W (06 Dec 2025)
4. Sturm Graz W 0–1 Austria Wien W (14 Sep 2025)
5. Austria Wien W 0–1 Sturm Graz W (03 May 2025)