Stocksund vs Järfälla Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, though the low 10% away probability overstates certainty given both teams' poor form.
• Stocksund's dominant 80% head-to-head record, including a 6-1 away win this season, supports the home-or-draw selection despite their weak league position.
• Both teams show identical 50% form and defence ratings, so the draw component of the advice carries genuine weight rather than serving as padding.
• Järfälla's superior 60% attack rating conflicts with Stocksund's 55% Poisson edge, suggesting the model leans on historical matchup patterns over current attacking metrics.
• Stocksund's 73% goals share and 2.20 home scoring average make the +1.5 goals component plausible, reinforced by Järfälla's 2.30 goals-against average.
• Recent form is discouraging for both sides, with Stocksund losing four of five and Järfälla losing four of five, which tempers confidence in any outright winner.

Predicted winner

Stocksund

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Stocksund or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Järfälla 1–6 Stocksund (08 Jun 2026)
2. Järfälla 1–3 Stocksund (29 Jun 2022)
3. Järfälla 1–6 Stocksund (22 Jun 2022)
4. Stocksund 2–1 Järfälla (09 Apr 2022)
5. Stocksund 2–3 Järfälla (08 Sep 2021)