Stockport County vs Peterborough Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Stockport County win, but its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability, so the advice is far from decisive and the 10% away figure mainly reflects Peterborough's weak profile. That profile is visible across the comparison metrics, where Stockport dominate form (78 vs 22), attack (86 vs 14) and Poisson (89 vs 11), while the defensive gap is much narrower at 56 vs 44 and goals are split evenly at 50–50. The overall index of 70.5 against 29.5 therefore overstates the separation suggested by the defence and goals columns, which is the main internal tension in the evidence. Stockport's seven-game record of three wins, one draw and three losses is modest, yet their away form is stronger than their home form, with two away wins, two away clean sheets and a 0–4 win at Wigan among the last five. Their goals analysis reinforces the attacking case: 16 goals at 2.30 per game, including a 5–1 home win over Wycombe and a 3–4 home loss to Leicester, though they have kept no home clean sheet and concede 2.30 per home game. Peterborough's seven games produced just one win, two draws and four losses, with only four goals scored at 0.60 per game and four failures to score, while their away record is especially poor at no wins, one draw, two defeats and 0.30 goals per away game. Their last five show a 3–1 home win over Colchester as the lone bright spot, alongside a 0–2 home loss to Doncaster, a 3–3 draw with Barnsley and a 1–2 home defeat to Sheffield Wednesday, so even their better results come with defensive leakage. The head-to-head record is more balanced than the 64–36 split implies: Stockport won 3–1 at Edgeley Park in April 2026 and 2–1 there in December 2024, but Peterborough won 3–0 at home in November 2025 and drew 1–1 in April 2025, showing the venue has mattered more than overall superiority. Taken together, the form, attack and Poisson evidence supports the Stockport advice, but the even goals split, narrow defensive gap, Stockport's leaky home defence and Peterborough's capacity for the occasional result mean the 45% draw probability is a genuine alternative rather than a negligible one.

Predicted winner

Stockport County

Betting advice

Winner : Stockport County

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Stockport County 3–1 Peterborough (25 Apr 2026)
2. Peterborough 3–0 Stockport County (20 Nov 2025)
3. Peterborough 1–1 Stockport County (18 Apr 2025)
4. Stockport County 2–1 Peterborough (20 Dec 2024)