Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Siarka Tarnobrzeg with a win-or-draw call and a combined draw-or-away double chance, yet its own probabilities split the outcome almost evenly between a draw and an away win at 45% each, leaving Star Starachowice only a 10% chance. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Siarka dominates form (77 versus 23), attack (67 versus 33), defence (70 versus 30) and the Poisson estimate (60 versus 40), while the total score of 60.30 to 39.70 points the same direction. The head-to-head section is the clearest counterweight, since it favours Star Starachowice 62 to 38 and includes a 2-0 home league win in March 2026, so the model's away lean is not fully supported by this particular matchup history. Recent form also complicates the picture: Star's last five read draw-loss-draw-loss-draw with only two goals scored and four conceded, whereas Siarka's read win-draw-win-win-win with eight scored and three conceded, a run that clearly underpins the strong form and attack splits. The season-level team analysis tempers Siarka's edge slightly, as both clubs have played nine matches and Star has actually drawn four times, which is consistent with the 45% draw probability and the double-chance framing rather than a clean away victory. The goals analysis supports the under 3.5 component, since Star averages just 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game, and Siarka averages 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded, with neither side exceeding 2.5 goals in any of their nine matches. Siarka's defensive record is the more stable of the two, conceding exactly one goal per game home and away, though four of its nine goals against arrived in the 76-90 window, a late-game vulnerability that could keep Star in the contest. Star's attacking profile is the weakest signal here, with four of five away matches without a goal and a total of only seven goals scored, so the 10% home win probability looks consistent with the evidence even if the head-to-head record argues for more respect. Overall, the form, Poisson and goals data jointly justify the draw-or-Siarka advice and the under 3.5 goals angle, but the head-to-head split and Star's four draws mean this should be treated as a genuinely uncertain, low-scoring fixture rather than a confident away result.

Predicted winner

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Star Starachowice 2–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg (14 Mar 2026)
2. Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2–2 Star Starachowice (28 Jan 2026)
3. Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2–2 Star Starachowice (27 Aug 2025)
4. Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1–2 Star Starachowice (17 May 2025)
5. Star Starachowice 0–3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg (18 Oct 2024)