Stabæk II vs Flekkerøy Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Stabæk II a 35% home win probability and the draw 35%, leaving Flekkerøy at 30%, so the advice of a double chance on Stabæk II or the draw reflects a narrow edge rather than a clear favourite. That edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Stabæk II lead on form (64.00 to 36.00), attack (54.00 to 46.00) and Poisson (59.00 to 41.00), while defence is level at 50.00 for both sides. However, the same comparison set shows Flekkerøy dominating the head-to-head and goals columns by 100.00 to 0.00, which directly contradicts the overall lean and suggests the model is weighing recent form more heavily than the single meeting between these teams. That meeting was a 6-0 Flekkerøy home win in May 2026, so the head-to-head sample is only one match and may overstate the away side's true advantage. The season records add further tension: Flekkerøy have 10 wins from 20 games against Stabæk II's 8, yet Stabæk II's form string is more balanced recently and their home record of 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses is stronger than their away record. Stabæk II's goals analysis shows a clear home bias, averaging 2.60 scored and 1.80 conceded at home versus 1.60 and 2.80 away, while Flekkerøy are tighter at home (1.20 conceded) but leak 2.20 per away game. The last-five records qualify the form gap, as Stabæk II have two wins, one draw and two losses with only one clean attacking display, whereas Flekkerøy have one win, one draw and three losses, including a 4-1 away win at Åkra but also a 0-2 home defeat to Madla. Both teams' goal distributions lean toward the 16-30 and 76-90 minute windows, and both have seen over 2.5 goals in only 5 or 6 of 20 matches, which points to a relatively low-scoring contest rather than a repeat of the 6-0. Overall, the double chance on Stabæk II or the draw is supported by form, attack and Poisson, but it is qualified by the lopsided head-to-head, Flekkerøy's superior win total and Stabæk II's weaker away profile, so the 35-35-30 split appropriately captures the uncertainty.

Predicted winner

Stabæk II

Betting advice

Double chance : Stabæk II or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Flekkerøy 6–0 Stabæk II (11 May 2026)