SSV Ulm 1846 vs Eintracht Trier Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Eintracht Trier a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for an SSV Ulm 1846 home win. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Trier lead on form (70 versus 30), defence (67 versus 33) and Poisson (76 versus 24), while Ulm's only clear advantages come in attack (58 versus 42) and the historical head-to-head and goals splits, which both read 100 to 0 in Ulm's favour. The head-to-head sample is very small and dated, however, consisting of just two 2022 meetings that were split one win each, so its 100% home weighting looks like an artefact of limited data rather than a reliable signal. Ulm's team analysis reinforces the caution around backing them: eight matches have produced no wins at all, only four draws and four defeats, with a form string of LLDDDLLD and no clean sheet at home. Trier's record over the same eight games is far healthier at four wins, one draw and three defeats, including a three-match winning streak and four clean sheets, although their most recent outing was a 1-3 home loss to Kickers Offenbach. The goals analysis adds a qualification rather than a contradiction, since Ulm actually score more per game overall (1.40 versus 1.10) but concede far more (2.30 versus 0.90), and their defensive leaks are concentrated late, with 37.5% of goals against arriving between minutes 76 and 90. Trier's attacking output is modest and slightly better away (1.50) than at home (0.80), which sits awkwardly with a prediction that leans on them avoiding defeat rather than dominating. The last-five records show Ulm without a win in three draws and two losses, including a 4-4 home draw with SGV Freiberg and a 0-0 at Astoria Walldorf, while Trier's two wins in that span were both away, 3-0 at Kaiserslautern II and 1-0 at Hessen Kassel. Overall, the form, defensive and Poisson evidence jointly support the draw-or-Trier advice, but the small head-to-head sample, Ulm's superior scoring rate and Trier's low home scoring mean the edge looks modest rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Eintracht Trier

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Eintracht Trier

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. SSV Ulm 1846 2–0 Eintracht Trier (10 Dec 2022)
2. Eintracht Trier 0–1 SSV Ulm 1846 (20 Aug 2022)