Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
SS Reyes II vs Real Aranjuez Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's double-chance advice reflects a near-even three-way split, with home and draw each at 35% and away at 30%.
- SS Reyes II's stronger recent form and superior defensive rating support the home-or-draw lean despite their poor home record.
- Real Aranjuez remain winless with the league's worst defensive record, conceding 2.5 goals per game across four matches.
- Both attacks rate equally, but SS Reyes II's edge in defence and form tilts the balance toward avoiding defeat rather than a clear win.
- The Poisson metric favouring the away side conflicts with form and defence data, so the model hedges with double chance instead of a straight home win.
- With no head-to-head history and small four-match samples, the probabilities stay compressed, justifying the cautious double-chance advice.
- Predicted winner
- SS Reyes II
- Betting advice
- Double chance : SS Reyes II or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | SS Reyes II | Real Aranjuez |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 60.3% | 39.7% |
Team form and goal analysis
SS Reyes II
Recent form: LWLL.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Real Aranjuez
Recent form: LLDL.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
No recorded head-to-head matches are available.