Sportfreunde Lotte vs Borussia M'gladbach II Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Borussia M'gladbach II as the winner, but its 45% away probability is matched by a 45% draw probability and only a 10% home chance, so the advice is better read as a slight preference than a clear edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where M'gladbach II dominate form (91 versus 9), attack (73 versus 27), defence (65 versus 35) and the Poisson measure (100 versus 0), yet Sportfreunde Lotte surprisingly lead the head-to-head (60 versus 40) and goals (60 versus 40) splits. The team analysis explains the form gap: Lotte have no wins in nine matches (three draws, six defeats) and have failed to score in six of them, while M'gladbach II have five wins, two draws and two defeats with only two blanks. Lotte's goals analysis is similarly bleak, with 0.70 goals scored per game against 1.70 conceded, no clean sheet at home and four home matches without a goal, whereas M'gladbach II average 2.00 scored and 1.10 conceded with three clean sheets. The last-five records sharpen that contrast, as Lotte have taken one point from five games (a 2-2 draw at Köln II plus four defeats, including 0-3 at home to Hilden), while M'gladbach II have three wins, a draw and a single loss, albeit that loss was a 1-3 reverse at Rot-weiss Oberhausen. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, since Lotte won the most recent meeting 4-1 in May 2025 and also won 2-0 in March 2022, although M'gladbach II won the two 2025-26 fixtures 3-1 at home and 1-0 away. Those head-to-head results are a small, older sample that conflicts with the current-season form and goal data, which is why the model still favours the visitors without making the outcome look secure. With the draw probability equal to the away win probability and Lotte's home record showing four defeats from four, the evidence points to M'gladbach II avoiding defeat more convincingly than to a guaranteed away victory.

Predicted winner

Borussia M'gladbach II

Betting advice

Winner : Borussia M'gladbach II

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Borussia M'gladbach II 3–1 Sportfreunde Lotte (11 Apr 2026)
2. Sportfreunde Lotte 0–1 Borussia M'gladbach II (18 Oct 2025)
3. Sportfreunde Lotte 4–1 Borussia M'gladbach II (03 May 2025)
4. Borussia M'gladbach II 1–2 Sportfreunde Lotte (09 Nov 2024)
5. Sportfreunde Lotte 2–0 Borussia M'gladbach II (19 Mar 2022)