Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Alianza Atletico a 45% win probability and Sport Boys only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Alianza Atletico rather than a straight away win. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Alianza lead on form (60 versus 40), attack (53 versus 47) and goals (80 versus 20), yet the two sides are level on defence at 50 and the Poisson split is an extreme 100 to 0 in Sport Boys' favour, a conflict that suggests the model's edge is not uniform across all inputs. The head-to-head record is the strongest single support for the advice, with Alianza Atletico winning 71% of the historical comparison against Sport Boys' 29%, and the recent meetings fit that pattern: Alianza won 1-0 away in April 2026 and 1-0 away at this same Miguel Grau Stadium in November 2025, while Sport Boys' last win in the series came back in 2022. Alianza's team analysis shows a perfect five-win run with no draws or defeats, three home wins and two away wins, and they have scored in every match while keeping two clean sheets, although their 71.43% penalty conversion and 28.57% miss rate hint at some wastefulness. Sport Boys are unbeaten in their four recorded fixtures with a DWWW form line, but that record includes only three wins and one draw, and their two home clean sheets came alongside a 2.00 goals-against average on the road, so their defensive solidity is venue-dependent. The goals analysis adds nuance: Sport Boys average 2.30 goals scored but concede 1.00 overall, with all four goals against arriving away from home, while Alianza average 2.00 scored and just 0.80 conceded, split between 1.00 at home and 0.50 away. Both teams' last-five records show recent wobbles that the headline form lines obscure, as Sport Boys drew 1-1 at FBC Melgar and lost 2-1 at Sport Huancayo, while Alianza lost 3-1 at Atletico Grau and drew 1-1 with UTC Cajamarca despite winning their other three. The late-goal distribution is a further qualifier, with Alianza scoring 35.71% of their goals after the 106th minute and conceding 50% of theirs in that same period, which makes a narrow or draw-heavy outcome plausible even if their overall superiority holds. Overall, the form, goals and head-to-head evidence jointly lean toward Alianza avoiding defeat, but the level defensive ratings, the contradictory Poisson signal and Sport Boys' unbeaten run mean the draw-or-away double chance is a more defensible expression of that view than a single winner.

Predicted winner

Alianza Atletico

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Alianza Atletico

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Alianza Atletico 0–1 Sport Boys (19 Apr 2026)
2. Sport Boys 0–1 Alianza Atletico (16 Nov 2025)
3. Alianza Atletico 1–0 Sport Boys (12 Jul 2025)
4. Alianza Atletico 2–0 Sport Boys (24 Aug 2024)
5. Sport Boys 0–0 Alianza Atletico (31 Mar 2024)