Sparta Nijkerk vs Staphorst Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Sparta Nijkerk a 35% home win and 35% draw against Staphorst's 30%, framing the advice as a Sparta Nijkerk-or-draw double chance combined with over 1.5 goals. That narrow edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Sparta Nijkerk dominate form 78 to 22 and attack 70 to 30, while Staphorst's only clear advantage comes from the head-to-head split at 71 to 29 and a slight Poisson lean of 55 to 45. Sparta Nijkerk's six-game record of two wins, two draws and two losses, including a 0-4 away win, contrasts with Staphorst's three draws and three defeats, though Staphorst's away form of three draws and no losses suggests they are harder to beat on the road than their overall record implies. The goals analysis supports the over 1.5 element, as Sparta Nijkerk average 2.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded, with four of six matches going over 1.5 and 2.5 goals, while Staphorst average only 1.30 scored but have seen over 1.5 goals in four of six. Defensively the comparison is nearly level at 48 to 52, but Sparta Nijkerk's home defensive numbers are poor, conceding 3.30 per home game with no home clean sheets, which tempers confidence in a comfortable home win. The last-five records show Sparta Nijkerk winning four of five, including 3-1, 4-0, 3-1 and 2-0 victories, whereas Staphorst have two draws and three defeats, scoring twice in three of those losses but never keeping a clean sheet at home. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, with Staphorst winning four of the last eight completed meetings and Sparta Nijkerk winning three, including a 1-2 Staphorst away win in the most recent encounter in March 2026. Overall, the evidence points to a plausible Sparta Nijkerk-or-draw outcome with goals, but the head-to-head and Poisson signals, plus Sparta Nijkerk's leaky home defence, mean the double chance carries more risk than the form and attack gaps alone would suggest.

Predicted winner

Sparta Nijkerk

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Sparta Nijkerk or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Sparta Nijkerk 1–2 Staphorst (21 Mar 2026)
2. Staphorst 3–1 Sparta Nijkerk (18 Oct 2025)
3. Sparta Nijkerk 3–2 Staphorst (16 Mar 2024)
4. Staphorst 5–1 Sparta Nijkerk (07 Oct 2023)
5. Staphorst 1–1 Sparta Nijkerk (27 May 2023)