Sotra vs Pors Grenland Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Sotra win, but its own probabilities show how thin that edge is: 45% home against 45% draw and only 10% away, meaning the advice is effectively a coin-flip between a Sotra victory and a stalemate rather than a clear separation. The comparison metrics reinforce that lean almost uniformly, with Sotra ahead on form (75 vs 25), attack (71 vs 29), defence (58 vs 42), Poisson (74 vs 26), head-to-head (88 vs 13) and goals (100 vs 0), and the aggregate total (73.2 vs 27.0) confirms the same direction. That consistency is qualified, however, by the underlying team records: Sotra's 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 20 games are clearly better than Pors Grenland's 6-5-9, yet Sotra's form string includes a four-match losing run and a recent loss, so their superiority is real but not unbroken. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, as Sotra average 2.10 goals per game overall (2.50 at home) while conceding 1.00, whereas Pors Grenland average just 1.10 and concede 1.40, a gap that supports the home side but also suggests Pors Grenland rarely blow opponents away. Sotra's scoring is spread across the match, with 24.39% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, while Pors Grenland concentrate 31.82% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, hinting that the game's shape could shift late rather than being settled early. The last-five records add a counterweight: Pors Grenland have won two of their last five, including a 2-0 home win over Lysekloster and a 2-1 win over Stabaek, but those wins came at home and were followed by away defeats, while Sotra's recent five show three wins, one draw and one loss, with the defeats and the draw suggesting they are not invincible. The head-to-head record is the most awkward evidence for a straightforward home read, since the most recent meeting in May 2026 finished 0-0 at Pors Stadion, even though Sotra won 5-0 at home in September 2025 and Pors Grenland won 2-0 at home in May 2025, so the three-match sample is split and venue-dependent. Taken together, the broad statistical trend and the head-to-head weighting point toward Sotra, but the 45% draw probability, the recent 0-0 between these teams and Pors Grenland's two wins in their last five mean the existing advice should be read as a modest lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Sotra

Betting advice

Winner : Sotra

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Pors Grenland 0–0 Sotra (03 May 2026)
2. Sotra 5–0 Pors Grenland (20 Sep 2025)
3. Pors Grenland 0–2 Sotra (31 May 2025)