Sorrento vs Casarano Prediction
· Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio
Match prediction
- Sorrento's five-win streak collapsed into two straight losses, so the model's 45% home win and draw probabilities reflect a genuine form dip rather than dominance.
- Casarano's away record without a win and 0.70 goals per away game undercuts their threat, supporting the double-chance protection over a straight home win.
- Sorrento's attack and defence ratings both exceed Casarano's, yet the modest 1.40 goals-per-game average explains why the -3.5 goals line carries little risk.
- Neither side has exceeded 3.5 goals in any league match this season, making the under 3.5 component the most statistically grounded part of the advice.
- Sorrento's goals conceded cluster late while Casarano score most after 76 minutes, a late-goal pattern that could unsettle the clean-sheet assumption.
- Head-to-head leans Sorrento but includes a 2-0 away loss and a 3-3 draw, so the draw probability deserves equal weight alongside the home win.
- Predicted winner
- Sorrento
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : Sorrento or draw and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Sorrento | Casarano |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Attack | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Defence | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Poisson | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| H2h | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Goals | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Total | 60.5% | 39.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Sorrento
Recent form: WWWWWLL.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Casarano
Recent form: LWLWWDL.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Casarano 2–0 Sorrento (07 Feb 2026)
- Sorrento 3–3 Casarano (24 Sep 2025)
- Sorrento 3–0 Casarano (03 Apr 2022)
- Casarano 1–1 Sorrento (21 Nov 2021)
- Sorrento 7–0 Casarano (16 Feb 2020)