Sölvesborg vs Berga Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Berga a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with home, draw, and away probabilities of 10%, 45%, and 45%, so the advice is effectively a rejection of a Sölvesborg win rather than a strong lean toward Berga. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Berga leads on form (54 vs 46), attack (63 vs 38), Poisson (66 vs 34), head-to-head (60 vs 40), goals (55 vs 45), and total (58 vs 42.2), while defence is level at 50 apiece. The team records reinforce the same direction: Berga have 11 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses from 22, whereas Sölvesborg have 8 wins, 1 draw, and 13 losses, and Berga's recent form string contains more wins and fewer defeats. Berga's goals analysis is also stronger, with 47 goals scored at 2.10 per game and 33 conceded at 1.50, compared with Sölvesborg's 32 scored at 1.50 and 40 conceded at 1.80, although both teams share a similar clean-sheet total of three. The last-five records qualify the headline gap, because Berga have won three of five but lost the other two, including a 1-3 home defeat to Lilla Torg and a 1-4 away loss at Karlskrona, while Sölvesborg have won two of five but lost three, including a 1-4 defeat at IFK Trelleborg and a 0-2 home loss to Karlskrona. The head-to-head record is mixed rather than one-sided: Berga won the most recent meeting 3-2 in May 2026, Sölvesborg won 3-1 in the 2025 Svenska Cupen, and the older 2021 and 2018 meetings split between the sides, so the 60-40 head-to-head comparison reflects a small and inconsistent sample. The draw probability of 45% is the single largest component of the prediction, which fits a fixture where Berga are the better side on most metrics but Sölvesborg have enough recent wins and historical head-to-head success to make a home victory plausible. Overall, the evidence supports the existing draw-or-Berga advice as a cautious position rather than a confident away win, because Berga's advantages in attack, form, and overall totals are partly offset by their recent losses and by Sölvesborg's capacity to score in this matchup.

Predicted winner

Berga

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Berga

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Berga 3–2 Sölvesborg (29 May 2026)
2. Berga 1–3 Sölvesborg (27 May 2025)
3. Sölvesborg 4–2 Berga (07 Jul 2021)
4. Berga 5–1 Sölvesborg (24 Jun 2021)
5. Berga 1–0 Sölvesborg (25 Aug 2018)