Sodupe vs Aurrerá Vitoria Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Aurrerá Vitoria a 45% win probability and Sodupe only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Aurrerá Vitoria rather than a straight away win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Aurrerá leads on form (58 versus 42), attack (63 versus 38), defence (25 versus 75, remembering lower is better here) and Poisson (74 versus 26), yet the total scores of 55.00 against 45.30 show the overall gap is narrower than those individual edges suggest. The team analysis reinforces the same tension: Aurrerá are unbeaten in three with two wins and a draw, while Sodupe are also unbeaten in three but with two draws and one win, so both arrive without a loss but Aurrerá carry the greater winning habit. Aurrerá's goals analysis shows five goals scored across three games at 1.70 per match, with two of their five goals coming in the 46-60 minute window, whereas Sodupe have scored only three at 1.00 per match and have never exceeded 2.5 goals in a game. Defensively the picture is more balanced than the raw comparison implies, since Sodupe have conceded just one goal in three matches and kept two clean sheets, both of them away from home, while Aurrerá have conceded three and kept none. The last-five records add a note of caution about sample size, because Sodupe's sequence includes two matches from 2021 that are well outside the current run, and their recent form of draws against Amurrio and Eibar III plus a 2-0 win at R. Union B suggests a low-scoring, hard-to-beat side rather than a weak one. Aurrerá's last five are more consistently productive, with four wins and a draw and a repeated 2-1 scoreline, including a 2-1 home win over Deportivo Alavés III and a 2-1 away win at Amurrio, which supports their higher attacking and form ratings. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical meeting data to either confirm or contradict the model's lean toward Aurrerá. Taken together, the evidence points to Aurrerá as the more likely winner on form, attack and Poisson, but Sodupe's defensive record and the 45% draw probability justify the model's decision to protect the selection with the draw rather than backing an outright away victory.

Predicted winner

Aurrerá Vitoria

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Aurrerá Vitoria

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.