Slivnishki geroy vs CSKA Sofia III Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives CSKA Sofia III a 45% win probability and Slivnishki geroy only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the "draw or CSKA Sofia III" double chance reflects a fixture the model sees as close but leaning away from a home win. That reading is supported by the comparison metrics, where CSKA Sofia III leads on defence (64 vs 36) and Poisson (63 vs 37), while Slivnishki geroy leads on form (54 vs 46) and attack (58 vs 42), leaving the head-to-head and goals categories level at 50-50 and the overall totals nearly balanced at 47.50 against 52.50. The form strings sharpen this tension: Slivnishki geroy's LLWWWLLD shows three wins but also four defeats in eight matches, whereas CSKA Sofia III's DDDDLWD is built on five draws in seven games with only one loss, which helps explain why the draw carries the same 45% weight as an away victory. The goals analysis reinforces the low-scoring, draw-prone profile, since CSKA Sofia III average just 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match, and their matches have stayed under 2.5 goals in six of seven, while Slivnishki geroy average 1.50 scored but 1.90 conceded. Slivnishki geroy's defensive numbers are the clearest weakness, with 15 goals conceded in eight games and a 2.00 home average, including a 0-3 home loss to Kostinbrod, although their away scoring of 1.80 per game shows they can still threaten. CSKA Sofia III's away record is less convincing, with no away wins in four attempts and only 0.50 goals per away match, which qualifies the away-leaning advice and supports the draw component rather than a confident away win. The last-five records echo that contrast, as Slivnishki geroy have two wins, two losses and a draw with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded, while CSKA Sofia III have one win, one loss and two draws, scoring four and conceding three across those matches. The head-to-head record is genuinely balanced and offers no decisive edge, with two 1-1 draws, a 1-0 home win for Slivnishki geroy and a 2-1 home win for CSKA Sofia III, so home advantage has tended to matter more than overall superiority. Taken together, the evidence supports the existing double chance mainly because CSKA Sofia III are hard to beat and Slivnishki geroy concede too often, but the low away scoring and the high draw share mean the draw leg carries much of the protection rather than a clear away win.

Predicted winner

CSKA Sofia III

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or CSKA Sofia III

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. CSKA Sofia III 2–1 Slivnishki geroy (28 Feb 2026)
2. Slivnishki geroy 1–0 CSKA Sofia III (23 Aug 2025)
3. CSKA Sofia III 1–1 Slivnishki geroy (12 Mar 2025)
4. Slivnishki geroy 1–1 CSKA Sofia III (17 Aug 2024)