SK Vorwarts Steyr vs Grödig Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw-or-Grödig double chance, with the draw and away win each at 45% and a home win at only 10%, so the advice reflects a broadly even contest rather than a clear away edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Vorwärts Steyr actually leads on form (53 vs 47), attack (57 vs 43), defence (54 vs 46) and Poisson (58 vs 42), meaning the underlying performance indicators favour the home side even though the probabilities do not. The decisive counterweight is the head-to-head split of 20 versus 80 in Grödig's favour, but that rests on only two meetings — a 0-0 friendly in 2021 and a 0-2 Grödig cup win in 2014 — so it is a thin and dated basis for confidence. The goals comparison is even more extreme, with Grödig at 100 and Steyr at 0, yet this sits awkwardly beside the season goal data, where Steyr have scored 10 and conceded 11 while Grödig have scored 12 and conceded 10, a near-mirror profile. Steyr's home scoring average of 1.30 is matched by their away average, and their defensive record is actually the stronger of the two at home (1.00 conceded per game) compared with Grödig's 1.70 away, which helps explain why the model still leaves the home win at a non-trivial 10%. Both teams' last-five records show similar inconsistency: Steyr have W-D-W-L-D with a 4-1 win at Leonfelden offset by a 0-4 home loss to TSV Hartberg, while Grödig have D-L-W-W-L with a 1-3 defeat at Bad Schallerbach and a 1-2 loss at Ried II. Over the full eight-game samples, Steyr's WLLLDWDW and Grödig's WWLLWWLD produce comparable totals of three and four wins respectively, and Grödig's perfect record of scoring in every match contrasts with Steyr failing to score three times. The total comparison of 48.40 against 51.60 is the narrowest split in the data, which is consistent with a prediction that treats the draw as the most likely single outcome and the away side as only marginally favoured within the double chance.

Predicted winner

Grödig

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Grödig

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Grödig 0–0 SK Vorwarts Steyr (03 Jul 2021)
2. SK Vorwarts Steyr 0–2 Grödig (23 Sep 2014)