Siero vs Ceares Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Siero a 35% home win and 35% draw against Ceares’ 30% away win, so the “Siero or draw” double chance rests on a narrow combined 70% edge rather than a dominant home projection. That modest edge is supported by Siero’s superior form score of 67 versus 33 and by a defence rating of 88 against Ceares’ 13, yet it is undercut by Ceares’ much stronger attack score of 67 versus 33 and by the Poisson split of 100 to 0 in Siero’s favour, which looks like an extreme model artifact rather than a balanced signal. The goals and head-to-head metrics pull in the opposite direction, with Ceares leading goals 89 to 11 and head-to-head 91 to 9, while the total comparison is closer at 41.60 for Siero and 58.60 for Ceares. Siero’s three-match form of LWW includes two clean sheets and only one goal conceded, with a 2-0 home win over Andes and a 1-0 away win at Astur, but their most recent head-to-head at home was a 0-2 loss to Ceares in May 2026. Ceares’ WLL form is more volatile: they beat Langreo 2-1 at home but lost 3-4 at home to Colunga and 1-2 away at Caudal, conceding seven goals across three games and keeping no clean sheets. Their goals analysis shows 2.00 scored and 2.30 conceded per game, with 57.14% of goals against arriving in the 76-90 minute window, which suggests late-game vulnerability that could matter if Siero keep the game tight. The head-to-head record is mixed across four meetings: Ceares won 2-0 at Siero in May 2026 and 1-0 at home in January 2026, while Siero won 5-1 at home in September 2019 and the February 2020 meeting finished 0-0. Siero’s last-five record also includes a 0-1 away loss at Condal and a 0-2 home loss to Ceares, so their recent wins have come against Andes and Astur rather than against the stronger side in this matchup. Overall, the double chance is a reasonable but fragile reading: Siero’s defensive form and home advantage justify avoiding a Ceares win, but Ceares’ superior attack, goals output, and recent head-to-head wins mean the draw is a live outcome and the prediction should be treated as uncertain rather than secure.

Predicted winner

Siero

Betting advice

Double chance : Siero or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Siero 0–2 Ceares (10 May 2026)
2. Ceares 1–0 Siero (11 Jan 2026)
3. Ceares 0–0 Siero (08 Feb 2020)
4. Siero 1–5 Ceares (21 Sep 2019)