Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ska-khabarovsk Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Shinnik Yaroslavl with a double-chance call of win or draw, assigning 45% to a home win, 45% to a draw, and only 10% to an away victory, so the advice rests on the combined 90% covering the home side. That framing is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Shinnik holds clear edges in form (75 versus 25), defence (71 versus 29), Poisson (62 versus 38), goals (55 versus 45), and overall total (59.80 versus 40.20), while Ska-khabarovsk's only counterweight is a modest attack advantage of 54 versus 46. The head-to-head split is exactly even at 50-50, which tempers the home-side case, and the recent meetings show why: Shinnik won 3-0 at home in April 2026, but Ska-khabarovsk won 3-1 in Khabarovsk in October 2025, so venue has mattered more than any stable supremacy. Shinnik's season profile of three wins, six draws, and two losses across eleven matches, including four home draws, helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the home-win probability rather than the model favouring a clear home victory. Their last five reinforce that pattern of low separation, with a 0-1 home loss to KAMAZ, home draws against Ural and Rotor Volgograd, a 2-0 home win over Torpedo Moskva, and a 0-0 away draw at Enisey. Ska-khabarovsk's record is far weaker at one win, two draws, and eight losses, and their last five include a 4-0 cup win over Znamya Noginsk but also a 2-3 loss at Leningradets and a 0-2 home defeat to Torpedo Moskva, alongside away draws at FC Sochi and Arsenal Tula. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast: Shinnik average 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded per match, whereas Ska-khabarovsk average 1.00 scored and 2.10 conceded, and the away side's defensive record is the weakest single number in the evidence. Both teams concede heavily in the 46-60 window, Shinnik 53.85% of their goals against and Ska-khabarovsk 39.13%, which suggests the period after half-time could be influential, though the small samples involved mean this should be treated as a tendency rather than a rule. Overall, the evidence supports the cautious double-chance framing more than a confident home win, because Shinnik's defensive solidity and Ska-khabarovsk's poor form and leaky defence point one way, while the even head-to-head and Shinnik's draw-heavy profile keep the draw genuinely live.

Predicted winner

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Betting advice

Double chance : Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Shinnik Yaroslavl 3–0 Ska-khabarovsk (26 Apr 2026)
2. Ska-khabarovsk 3–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl (05 Oct 2025)
3. Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–1 Ska-khabarovsk (09 Mar 2025)
4. Ska-khabarovsk 0–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl (10 Aug 2024)
5. Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–1 Ska-khabarovsk (12 May 2024)