Sheffield United W vs Durham W Prediction

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC · Bramall Lane

Match prediction

The existing model gives Durham W a 45% win probability and Sheffield United W only 10%, with a further 45% on the draw, so the double-chance advice on draw or Durham W reflects a fixture the model sees as close but tilted away from the hosts. That reading is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Durham lead attack 67 to 33 and take the Poisson column entirely at 100 to 0, while Sheffield United's only clear edges come in head-to-head (71 to 29) and goals (58 to 42), plus a narrower 53.8 to 46.3 advantage in the total column. The form figures are level at 0.00 for both sides, which is consistent with the team analysis showing identical LLL records: Sheffield United have lost all three of their matches (one at home, two away) and Durham have also lost all three (two at home, one away), so neither arrives with any momentum. The goals analysis nonetheless separates them, because Sheffield United have scored only twice at 0.70 per game while conceding eight at 2.70, whereas Durham have scored four at 1.30 per game but conceded nine at 3.00, meaning both defences look vulnerable and the hosts' attacking output is the weaker of the two. Durham's last five add nuance to the raw form line, since their three most recent outings are defeats (1-2 to Nottingham Forest, 2-4 at Leicester, 1-3 to Southampton) but they also beat Newcastle 1-0 away and Sheffield United 2-1 at home in the two preceding matches. Sheffield United's last five are unrelieved losses, including a 1-10 defeat at Manchester United, a 1-4 loss at Newcastle, a 1-3 loss at Wolverhampton, and home defeats of 0-1 to Leicester and 0-4 to Bristol City, which underlines how heavily their defensive numbers have been punished. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight to the away-leaning probabilities, as Sheffield United hold the 71 to 29 historical edge and won the most recent meeting at Bramall Lane 2-1 in November 2025, while Durham won 2-1 at Maiden Castle in April 2026 and the series also contains several draws. Because those head-to-head results are spread across league, cup, and WSL Cup fixtures over multiple seasons, they may say more about long-run parity than about current form, and the small three-match samples behind the LLL records limit how firmly any trend can be projected. On balance, the evidence supports the cautious draw-or-Durham stance mainly through Durham's superior attack and Poisson profile, but the hosts' head-to-head record and the shared losing form mean this should be treated as an uncertain, finely balanced projection rather than a confident one.

Predicted winner: Durham W
Betting advice: Double chance : draw or Durham W
Home win probability: 10%
Draw probability: 45%
Away win probability: 45%
Goals market: —

Prediction comparison

Factor	Sheffield United W	Durham W
Form	0.0%	0.0%
Attack	33.0%	67.0%
Defence	53.0%	47.0%
Poisson	0.0%	100.0%
H2h	71.0%	29.0%
Goals	58.0%	42.0%
Total	53.8%	46.3%

Team form and goal analysis