Shaanxi Union vs Dalian Huayi Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Shaanxi Union or draw, but its 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away split shows how marginal that edge is. The comparison metrics reinforce the ambiguity: Dalian Huayi holds a clear form advantage (61 versus 39) and a large defensive edge (69 versus 31), while Shaanxi counters with better attack (53 versus 47), a dominant Poisson score (80 versus 20) and a stronger head-to-head rating (62 versus 38). Shaanxi's home profile explains much of that Poisson support, since they have won 7 of 11 at home with only one home defeat, whereas their away record of 2 wins and 7 losses is poor. Dalian's season is almost the mirror image, with 5 home wins and 6 home draws but only 2 away wins from 11, which tempers their superior overall form and suggests the venue may narrow the gap. The goals analysis supports a low-scoring, tight contest: Shaanxi concede just 0.70 per home game and Dalian 1.30 at home, while Shaanxi's 2.5-goal under count of 18 from 23 and Dalian's 20 from 23 point to few goals. Both teams have scored 30 to 35 goals across 23 matches, and both failed to score in 6 games, so neither attack is reliably prolific. The last-five records add a qualification rather than a contradiction, as Shaanxi have two wins, one draw and two losses with 8 goals scored and 9 conceded, while Dalian are unbeaten with three wins and two draws, scoring 7 and conceding 4. The head-to-head record is genuinely mixed across five meetings: two Shaanxi home wins, one Dalian home win, and two draws, including a 2-2 draw in Dalian in August 2026, so it does not clearly favour either side. Overall, the double chance is plausible because Shaanxi's home strength and the draw probability align, but Dalian's form, defence and recent unbeaten run mean the advice should be treated as a narrow, uncertain lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

Shaanxi Union

Betting advice

Double chance : Shaanxi Union or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Dalian Huayi 2–2 Shaanxi Union (01 Aug 2026)
2. Dalian Huayi 3–0 Shaanxi Union (01 Nov 2025)
3. Shaanxi Union 2–1 Dalian Huayi (28 Jun 2025)
4. Dalian Huayi 1–1 Shaanxi Union (28 Jul 2024)
5. Shaanxi Union 2–1 Dalian Huayi (25 May 2024)