SGV Freiberg vs Stuttgarter Kickers Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward an SGV Freiberg win, but its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability and only a 10% away share, so the advice is best read as a narrow lean rather than a clear edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Freiberg leads on form (55 vs 45), attack (70 vs 30), defence (42 vs 58) and especially Poisson (85 vs 15), yet the head-to-head score (38 vs 62) and goals comparison (47 vs 53) both tilt toward Stuttgarter Kickers. Freiberg's team analysis shows why the form and defensive numbers look strong: eight matches without defeat, five wins and three draws, five clean sheets, and no losses home or away, although three of those draws came on the road and two away matches ended without a goal. Their goals analysis adds a further qualification, since a 2.80 average scored and 0.90 conceded is built on a home record of 3.30 scored and just 0.30 conceded, while away they scored 2.40 but conceded 1.20, and 45% of their goals arrive after the 76th minute. Stuttgarter Kickers' profile is more volatile: five wins, one draw and two losses from eight, with both defeats in the last five and no clean sheets at home, though they have kept two away clean sheets and have never failed to score. Their goals analysis shows a lower 1.90 average scored and 1.40 conceded, with 2.30 scored at home but only 1.50 away, and their goals are spread fairly evenly across the match rather than concentrated late. The last-five records capture the contrast in momentum, as Freiberg are unbeaten with three wins and two draws including a 5-0 home win over FSV Mainz 05 II, while Kickers have won three and lost two, both defeats by a single goal. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the home lean, since Kickers lead the overall series and won 3-2 at home in April 2025, although Freiberg won the most recent meeting 2-1 in April 2026 and the two 2024-25 league fixtures both ended level. Taken together, the evidence supports a modest home lean through form, defence and Poisson, but the high draw probability, the head-to-head deficit and Kickers' ability to score in every match mean the existing advice carries real uncertainty.

Predicted winner

SGV Freiberg

Betting advice

Winner : SGV Freiberg

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. SGV Freiberg 2–1 Stuttgarter Kickers (06 Apr 2026)
2. Stuttgarter Kickers 1–1 SGV Freiberg (30 Sep 2025)
3. Stuttgarter Kickers 3–2 SGV Freiberg (09 Apr 2025)
4. SGV Freiberg 2–2 Stuttgarter Kickers (28 Sep 2024)
5. Stuttgarter Kickers 1–0 SGV Freiberg (11 May 2024)