Sevilla III vs Egabrense Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Egabrense as a narrow away winner, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% for both the away win and the draw and only 10% for a Sevilla III victory, while the advised combo pairs Egabrense with over 1.5 goals. That caution is reflected in the comparison metrics, where Egabrense holds a clear 67 versus 33 edge in both form and attack, yet the two sides are level at 50 in defence, suggesting the defensive data does not separate them. The Poisson figures push much harder toward the visitors at 81 versus 19, which is a stronger signal than the head-to-head and goals columns, both of which sit at 0.00 for each team and therefore offer no usable split. The totals aggregate these strands into 66.30 for Egabrense against 33.80 for Sevilla III, broadly consistent with the form and attack gap but less extreme than the Poisson gap. Sevilla III's three league games produced a W-L-L pattern with four goals scored and six conceded, including a 2-1 home win over San Roque Lepe, a 2-3 home loss to Xerez Deportivo and a 2-0 away defeat at Betis C, and they have neither kept a clean sheet nor been shut out at home. Egabrense's WWL start is more productive, with eight goals scored and six conceded across three matches, featuring a 4-2 home win over Córdoba II, a 3-1 away win at Ceuta II and a 1-3 home loss to Portuense, and they have scored in every game while also failing to keep a clean sheet. Their goal timing is notably late-weighted, with 50% of their goals arriving between minutes 76 and 90 and a further 37.5% between 46 and 60, whereas Sevilla III's concessions cluster heavily in the same late window at 50%, which supports the over 1.5 element of the advice more than it clarifies the winner. The last-five records extend beyond the current league sample and complicate the picture: Sevilla III add a 0-0 home draw with Atlético Central and a 0-1 away loss at Utrera from May, while Egabrense's list contains only their three September fixtures, so the away side's recent form is a smaller and more current sample. The head-to-head section is empty, so no historical meeting can be used to reinforce or contradict the model's preference, and the defensive parity plus the even draw-versus-away split mean the Egabrense selection rests mainly on form, attack and Poisson evidence rather than on any direct matchup signal.

Predicted winner

Egabrense

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Egabrense and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.